Referendum : No :: Dem Primary in Itty-Bitty Conn. : Yes

Dem Leader Harry Reid is predicting a 5 seat gain in the US Senate by Democrats this November - and all I've got to say is "Not bloody likely!" His primary, no pun intended, reason for believing this is the result of the Democrat Primary in Connecticut - you know, the one where Joe Lieberman lost to anti-war candidate Ned Lamont (never did trust guys named Ned).

He and the media keep referring to this little tiny democrat primary in a small itty-bitty state as some bellwether, national referendum election on Bush:

"But the perception was that [Lieberman] was too close to George Bush and this election was, in many respects, a referendum on the President more than anything else. The results bode well for Democratic victories in November and our efforts to take the country in a new direction," [Reid and New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee] said [in a joint statement].

Spinning this small tiny democrat primary into some national referendum on the President is the height of mountain out of molehill politics.

And you know what? I'm glad! I want Harry and the Dems to falsely think that the country is going in this "new direction" based on some small state's primary. I want the MoveOns and other anti-war-blame-America-first lefties, who are credited in the media for Lamont's victory, to feel emboldened and force their candidates across the nation to sound like Ned (there's that name again) and run to the far left of the voters.

Politics is local, but Democrats have been desperately trying to make this year a national referendum on Bush, similar to the Republicans successful nationalization of the off-term election in 1994. Well, if they're gonna base their confidence and predictions on a democrat primary in which the victor only won 52-48* (yes it was that close but you wouldn't know from the media's crowing over Lieberman's defeat**) in a small state that has never carried any national significance, then Republicans should sleep well at night this fall.

Hey Harry, here's my prediction - Lieberman retains his seat as an Independent and Republicans gain 2 more.

maninblack

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*This means that 52% of about 33% of all voters in Connecticut voted for Ned - that breaks down to about 18% of Conn. voters - yeah really something to base a national referendum on. When did straw grasping become a democrat hobby?

** Don't forget, the 4 percent spread is after Lieberman publicly said in the weeks prior to the primary that if he lost he'd run as an independent. This means his supporters came out despite his throwing in the towel on the dem primary.